No, wrong assumption. The format which *sells* will win. Money matters. Nothing else.
James-
I agree with your statement as being true, however I respectfully disagree from a real-world standpoint.
The studios right now are trying to deal with a lot of factors, and the format war is killing the market penetration. There are incompatibilities with both formats: the D-Box system does not work with HDdvd, Bluray players are unable to play the latest releases without firmware updates, and in the studio's minds, disks being cracked is a bad thing.
The two formats cannot definitively argue that one is selling more than the other, although the attachment rate of hddvd speaks volumes.
The fact is, if only one format was on the shelf right now- if it was bluray with bd+ - that would be the format that Joe Dumeasse would buy.
And if the studio heads have the option of an uncrackable encryption scheme, it will be irresistible. Think about it- 1080P with true hd 7.1 sound is as good as it is going to get for a long, long time. It took television decades to go from standard def to high def, and I think we will be here for a great while. That is ok by me- so these studios are realizing that if their content goes out at this resolution and format, it will be of high enough quality to satisfy consumer demand for decades.
They will not have a higher quality product to resell for 20 years- do you think consumers will go out and buy 4K televisions and projectors? I don't think so- which means, while these formats are a "flop" compared to DVD right now, they are here to stay.
I think HD-DVD's ace in the hole will be sub-$200 players this holiday at Walmart.
But Bluray's will be more powerful- "Studios- they can't steal or copy our disks."
When I want to watch Jurassic Park, Star Wars, or Indianna Jones in the best picture quality possible, I would like to be able to back it up too. And if Spielberg or Lucas have their choice, they will choose the secure format. If there is no secure format, they will choose the one with the most market penetration.
That is why your work is so very important. I mean, honestly- I think your work could ultimately decide this format war.
I don't care what anyone says- 1080P and 7.1 lossless are the material tech specs on both disks. Neither format has an advantage for the consumer technologically speaking. Even Blu-ray's 50 gig suppose size advantage- so what? That is marketing crap. I was absolutely amazed when I was at CES in Jan 06- I had to confirm it for myself at both booths- "wait- you guys are both 1080P? and both lossless audio? So- why don't you just combine forces?"
The fact is- the one material technical advantage that Bluray can tout to content providers
right now is that their disks are uncrackable. And your work with anydvdhd can take that advantage away. Then it becomes purely about market share and what format sells the most players.
There are a lot of eyes on you right now. I hope you break BD+. And I think there are some huge electronics companies that hope you do too. If I owned Toshiba, I would put a ferrari in your driveway the day you break BD+
No presure man
Seriously though- thanks for your good work.