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DirectX 11 cards likely to arrive around Q3-Q4 of 2009

DrinkLyeAndDie

DrinkLyeAndDie

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This post contains a number of issue and after some personal statements I link to a thread at Fudzilla that in some way discusses what I am commenting on.

As I originally suspected DirectX 11 cards should likely appear in the later half of 2009. Personally, I feel the release will likely be Q4 and not Q3. Hopefully I am wrong. I also expect ATI to release the DirectX 11 cards first. I still don't think NVIDIA learned anything from the DirectX 10.1 situation.

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11058&Itemid=1

I also believe that ATI will be first because they will be likely be going to 40 nm. I wonder if NVIDIA will do the same thing as they did this time by releasing a card with an older die size and then updating it a few months later with a smaller one. I believe ATI will go full out to get the 40 nm cards out first and further increase their market share.

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11056&Itemid=1

NVIDIA's plan this time around for videocards with the GT 260 & 280 was to simply release a beast of a videocard. They did, in fact, do just that. They were beasts, expensive, power hungry, etc. NVIDIA had no plans for dual GPU solutions. ATI forced them to release the GT 285 which is two 55 nm GT 260's in a single card dual GPU setup. ATI's approach is more scalable although both CrossfireX and SLI do have some issues in some games. Nonetheless, I don't believe NVIDIA's core philosophy will change. I expect them to go with single GPU solutions. ATI will likely continue on a path of smaller die sizes and more scalable solutions which will involve X2 models of the cards. The single GPU model is powerful but add in another GPU and you get close to a 75% improvement in power.

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11057&Itemid=1

The 4800 series of cards has lead to a tremendous shift in the videocard market and NVIDIA's reign has ended. Even with NVIDIA now releasing a 55 nm dual GT 260 solution they trailed ATI by months in shrinking their die size and beating ATI. Cost-wise ATI still wins.
 
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It appears ATI has already successfully manufactured 40 nm cards. The RV740 is a 40 nm part. What they have created is not an official product for market but it is working as expected in testing from what has been released. If this is true then I see no reason for ATI being unable to release a 40 nm across-the-board line-up of DirectX 11 cards in Q3-Q4 of 2009.

Three factors will influence when DirectX 11 cards hit the market.

  1. Final specs for DirectX 11 so that a product can be released without worrying about changes.
  2. Windows 7's release date being set. While it is said that DirectX 11 will be available for Vista I expect it to come as part of Windows 7.
  3. Games supporting DirectX 11 need to be on the horizon for people to spend the money. Granted the newer card should be better anyway but this does help with sales.

If Windows 7 is delayed then I could see DirectX 11 videocards slipping back in release. If he cards slip then the games might as well. The key time period to release the cards is Q4 of 2009 during the holiday shopping. People buy for themselves and they buy as gifts for others.
 
Now if only ATI could get the driver portion correct. I have liked a lot of ATI cards over the years and I have owned about 6 of them. But they have at times reminded me of Cyberlink as far as the drivers. Note I have not owned an ATI part in about 3 years so maybe it is getting better with AMD owning them. But from what I see it can still be a mess at times.

I tend to pull for "the little man" and I am considering a 4850 for my HTPC so this is not a "hate post" more of an I wish post.
 
damnskippy said:
Now if only ATI could get the driver portion correct. I have liked a lot of ATI cards over the years and I have owned about 6 of them. But they have at times reminded me of Cyberlink as far as the drivers. Note I have not owned an ATI part in about 3 years so maybe it is getting better with AMD owning them. But from what I see it can still be a mess at times.

I tend to pull for "the little man" and I am considering a 4850 for my HTPC so this is not a "hate post" more of an I wish post.
Click to expand...

Just imagine ATI's current low-power solutions like the 4350 if it were a 40 nm part. As it is the product uses a mere 10 watts. As a 40 nm part... wow!

I honestly have to admit that for all the issues I've heard about ATI drivers over the years I have suffered no real issues with my ATI card and I've used the Catalyst 8.4 and up drivers. NVIDIA has its own share of driver problems and they have all those defective cards to worry about as well. :p

Anyway, if ATI continues to make wise decisions and follow the path they went down with the 4xxx series of cards I believe they can easily stay ahead of NVIDIA with the next generation of cards.
 
Nvidia is also "working" on dual chip 40nm cards. Supposed to be release in March '09.
"After quarter two of 2009 there should be even more chips from NVIDIA and ATI in 40nm as they both plan to make this transition roughly at the same time. For once, NVIDIA is likely to get to 40nm first, as ATI might wait to see what NVIDIA has up its sleeve, as it currently has dominance with its 55nm. But it should follow shortly after NVIDIA, or roughly at the same time."
 
oldjoe said:
Nvidia is also "working" on dual chip 40nm cards. Supposed to be release in March '09.
"After quarter two of 2009 there should be even more chips from NVIDIA and ATI in 40nm as they both plan to make this transition roughly at the same time. For once, NVIDIA is likely to get to 40nm first, as ATI might wait to see what NVIDIA has up its sleeve, as it currently has dominance with its 55nm. But it should follow shortly after NVIDIA, or roughly at the same time."
Click to expand...

ATI has now officially taped out the chip I mentioned. It's a mobile graphics part. NVIDIA is working on 40 nm but I believe they'll be playing catchup. They lagged to 55 nm for numerous reasons, as well.

The talk has been that ATI will release their first 40 nm part in Q1 of 2009. NVIDIA will likely hit Q2 of 2009 from the existing talk. I believe the guess on ATI is correct. I'm not so sure on NVIDIA and wouldn't be surprised if it was late Q2 or into Q3 of 2009 before they release a 40 nm part.
 
I think ATI is ahead of Nvidia at the moment in shrinking die sizes but it would not surprise me very much if Nvidia gets focused and catches up then surpasses ATI. Based on the fact they have been taking a spanking from ATI on a lot of fronts. At the same time it would not surprise me too much if they get spanked some more either :)

I am just glad we have some competition between the two!
 
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