Blu-ray to rule by 2011 according to Sony

[DrinkLyeAndDie]

Blu-ray backer Sony has announced that the format’s likely to outsell DVD globally in 2011, with over 5m Blu-ray discs having been sold around the world this year already.

Refer here (http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/08/01/sony_exec_bluray_2011/) for the full article. It isn't long.

I think Sony is hoping if they wish hard enough and they say it out loud that it will make some people decide to buy a BD player that haven't already. IOW, they're hoping to create more sales by making a claim that they can't even begin to back up with numbers.

 

[BDMinus]

In 2011 I predict that there will be another disc format and by sheer coincidence a new anydvd (will it still be called that when dvds go the way of videotape?) that will make backups of the format possible

 

[Clams]

I'm with BD- . I've already decided to skip over Blu-Ray in favor of upscaling regular DVDs. I think the next distribution format will be some sort of flash memory device as opposed to an optical disk. I'll wait it out to see if I'm right or not.

-W (quite satisfied with regular DVD)

 

[DrinkLyeAndDie]

New methods are already being developed most likely but I think the industry, itself, doesn't want to move too quickly onto another format for fear of alienating consumers. The HD-DVD and BD early adopters already both got punished in terms of standalone players. The HD-DVD people have an essentially dead format with a player they paid significantly more for than a normal standalone DVD player and the BD people have players that may not support features added later to BD.

I'll be interested to see how much China does with CBHD and if they try to market it outside China. CBHD is the new name for what had been dubbed CH-DVD.

I don't think it would be wise for the Industry to push for a new format until 2015 at the earliest.

 

[Clams]

I don't think it would be wise for the Industry to push for a new format until 2015 at the earliest.

That's cool. I can wait indefinately.

-W

 

[BDMinus]

I fear the "industry" may decide to cut off htpc playback due to rampant "excercise of fair use rights". They could alter the firmware of existing players to read a new blu-ray structure and effectively deny playback on software based players. The stand-alone player users probably won't care but the htpc users will and Slysoft won't be able to help us if they make the format incompatible with pc drives.

 

[Clams]

If they do it with firmware and not hardware... then Slysoft can easily fix it. And given the existing market penetration, I don't see a hardware change possible now.

-W

 

[Charlie]

I think the next distribution format will be some sort of flash memory device as opposed to an optical disk.

Some states are already doing this too. I think this might be the next gen as well.

I'll be interested to see how much China does with CBHD and if they try to market it outside China. CBHD is the new name for what had been dubbed CH-DVD.

I don't think it would be wise for the Industry to push for a new format until 2015 at the earliest.

CBHD will surely die as like the HD-DVD I think.

 

[DrinkLyeAndDie]

CBHD will surely die as like the HD-DVD I think.

China can keep it alive within China if they really want. The real question is will they export it and will they want much import of BD in China. I don't really expect it to much competition with BD.

 

[lostinlodos]

China can keep it alive within China if they really want. The real question is will they export it and will they want much import of BD in China. I don't really expect it to much competition with BD.

China's the second largest film market in the world, both in terms of output (following India) and consumption (following USA). If they chose to output CBHD and one other country jumps onboard, then that will become the format. Period.

The comment about HD being dead; I have now over 40 CH-DVDs.
For those not following world entertainment and the various formats
CBHD is almost CH-DVD. CH-DVD IS HD-DVD. So the people who watch Chinese, Russian, and Indian films still have a use for the "dead" format.

2011? Whatever. By 2011, holographic discs will be the leading format, CBHD will be commonplace across Eastern Europe and Asia, and Wal-Mart and Best Buy will both be renting Flashcard Video Format (FVF). Magneto Optical discs currently used by the film industry (quite an old tech, too, laser-read magnetic discs) will be affordable enough to be commonplace, Microsoft WinHD Disc will be the core format of it's new Xbox Whatever, Sega will have finally announced their new system, rumored for years, obviously in development (as per a giant R&D hole in their quarterly stock reports), and supposedly using the Pan-Asian HVD format. PS4K will bomb; Sony will be loosing the format war, video game war, and money war. They will settle on whatever is big at the time.

 

[andy o]

Unless they go higher than 1080p, I really don't see a need for more storage capacity, to me they already went overboard with bluray, they don't know what else to fit in the discs for crying out loud. Of course they could make the discs smaller if they do go holographic. But 50GB is more than enough for 1080p. And even so, until they start filming everything in IMAX (or those sweet RED cameras), I don't think I even want more than 1080p (too much money for too little gain, if any).

I feel wary about them going flash-based (or any other re-writable format). Given the last couple of years, how can we trust them with not writing crap in our purchased media after we bought it?

 

[lostinlodos]

Unless they go higher than 1080p, I really don't see a need for more storage capacity, to me they already went overboard with bluray, they don't know what else to fit in the discs for crying out loud. Of course they could make the discs smaller if they do go holographic. But 50GB is more than enough for 1080p. And even so, until they start filming everything in IMAX (or those sweet RED cameras), I don't think I even want more than 1080p (too much money for too little gain, if any).

I feel wary about them going flash-based (or any other re-writable format). Given the last couple of years, how can we trust them with not writing crap in our purchased media after we bought it?

HVD does higher than 1080 ON RED LASER! B* is so, yesterday!
Really though... I can by an IMAX-tec film (Wild China) on DVD, and it comes with a movie disc and a bonus disc. Or I can buy the same film on B* and it comes on a 17Gb movie disc and a second 20Gb Bonus disc. Now how hard would it have been to put the two DVDs on a single B*! Really, why the extra licensing and protection fees of a two disc set of B* when one disc would suffice!?

As for Flash, most people by that point will be using Vista, Mac OSX (or OSXI) or Microsoft X (previously 7, aka 20-X). The first two already allow read-only flash design by mounting flash devices (and any external for that matter) in sandboxes with no write access. X is supposed to BE a sandbox. So I'm not all that worried. I've tried a few of the flash video R&D demo pieces that appear to be, well, I'll still be using my DVDs and HVDs at that point, just like I watched LD and VHS until around 2000.